Correct solutions were submitted by Ariel Flat, Ravi Subramanian, Philippe Fondanaiche, Aaron David Kahn.
Now for a little algebra. In order to write the equation of
the ellipse, it's a good idea to place the coordinate system
carefully. The coordinate system of choice has the x-axis
through the points A and B, and the y-axis halfway
between these points. See the diagram on the left. The general
form of an ellipse is
To find the lowest point, T, it's easiest to argue from
physical principles.
See the diagram on the right where I've used a more standard coordinate
system; the ellipse described by the trajectory of the wheel is in black
and the rope is ATB. At the lowest point of the path, the
tangent to the ellipse is horizontal and the angles made to the normal
by the rope, XTB and XTA,
must be equal and opposite; this will ensure that both the forward and
returning force cancel. A little geometry should convince you that
the triangles BTD and CTD are equivalent, and by Pythagoras
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